DTN Midday Livestock Comments          04/06 11:16

   Lean Hog Futures Lead Gains Monday

   Strong gains developed across lean hog futures trade Monday morning as 
traders returned from the long Easter weekend. Cattle futures remain mixed with 
follow-through buyer support in live cattle trade, while feeder cattle futures 
have eased during Monday morning trade.

Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Cattle futures remain mixed early Monday due to the aggressive market 
support that flooded the market last week, creating some market positioning in 
both live cattle and feeder cattle trade. April live cattle futures are the 
only contract month posting strong support Monday due to limited trade volume 
in this contract month, but narrow gains are holding across the live cattle 
complex based on expected strong cash cattle and wholesale beef prices in the 
coming days and weeks. Feeder cattle futures have eased during morning trade, 
with nearby contracts seeing market positioning. Even with the recent market 
pullback in prices, the fundamental support based on tighter supplies and 
long-term demand growth still keeps the market outlook bullish. After spending 
most of last week stuck in a narrow but generally softer market direction, 
active buyer support quickly moved into most lean hog contracts, posting strong 
triple-digit support in May through February 2027 contract months. This renewed 
support is not surprising, but the ability to hold prices at current or higher 
levels through the end of the session could spark additional technical buying 
activity within the lean hog complex during early April. May corn is up 1 1/2 
at $4.538 and May soybean meal is up $1.60 at $316.8. The Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is up 96.22 at 46,600.89.

LIVE CATTLE

   Live cattle futures continue to show moderate to strong gains Monday 
morning, with spot April contracts leading the market higher with an additional 
$1.80 per cwt rally following the weekend break. Pressure in nearby feeder 
cattle trade has started to limit early-week buyer support in other live cattle 
trade, with prices generally 10 to 30 cents per cwt higher during the remaining 
2026 contract months. Despite the lack of aggressive market growth in live 
cattle contracts, the sharp gains seen last week have continued to keep the 
cattle market bullish, allowing for increased focus on additional tight 
supplies, as well as the potential that even wholesale beef values near $400 
per pound have not yet shown signs of beef demand slowing in domestic markets. 
Pressure in the feeder cattle trade will continue to be monitored through 
Monday and the remainder of the week, but traders are closely focusing on early 
week movements in beef values. The announcement over the weekend that JBS 
workers in the Greeley, Colorado, plant plan to return to work on Tuesday after 
striking for the past three weeks. This will help to create stability in 
processing schedules and increase overall beef flow through the entire domestic 
system, although it may not create significant and abrupt price changes to the 
market at this point. Cash cattle markets remain quiet Monday morning, with 
both sides assessing last week's movement. Show list distribution and inventory 
taking is likely to be the main order of business Monday, with any significant 
activity likely to be pushed off until the last half of the week. Light trade 
developed on Thursday last week, with a little cleanup on Friday. Southern live 
deals had a range of $244 to $246, mostly $245 to $246, $8 to $9 higher than 
the prior week's weighted averages. Northern dressed business had a full range 
of $380 to $386, mostly $385, $13 higher than the previous week's weighted 
averages. The Friday afternoon Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle report lists 
week-to-date trade volume totals as: KS 5,135; NE 22,588; TX 2,425; IA 28,731; 
and CO not available due to confidentiality. April live cattle are $1.75 higher 
at $247.95, June live cattle are $0.53 higher at $246.85 and August live cattle 
are $0.48 higher at $242.65. Boxed beef prices are Higher: choice up $1.18 
($388.96) and select up $2.12 ($388.31) with a movement of 32.80 loads (20.32 
loads of choice, 4.20 loads of select, 4.84 loads of trim and 3.44 loads of 
ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Feeder cattle markets are showing signs of weakness Monday morning, with 
firm triple-digit losses seen in spot April contracts through morning trade. 
Light to moderate losses are seen through the rest of the complex midmorning 
Monday, with traders slowly backing away from initial losses but still 
unwilling to actively move back into the buying side of the market. The 
aggressive market surge last week was impressive to say the least, as traders 
continue to focus on cattle numbers and long-term beef supplies tightening in 
the coming weeks and months. But the upward surge has caused traders to take a 
breather over the holiday weekend, allowing for some market positioning and 
profit-taking to develop in early week trade. Even with the current market 
pullback, prices are still fundamentally and technically strong, which may make 
it difficult to sustain a longer-term price pullback without additional market 
news or outside market factors disrupting the bullish tone already established 
within the cattle complex. April feeders are $0.70 lower at $372.2, May feeders 
are $0.45 lower at $370.175 and August feeders are $0.05 higher at $369.55.

LEAN HOGS:

   Lean hog prices are the bright spot as traders return from the Easter 
weekend break. While lean hog futures remained subdued last week, cattle 
futures posted an aggressive market rally, and buyers have quickly moved back 
into the market, focusing on regaining market support and price firmness 
through the entire lean hog complex. The morning rally in May through August 
contracts has not pushed most of these contracts back to the 40-day moving 
average, where prices have traded below this level for nearly a month. 
Continued optimism surrounding pork demand growth over the coming weeks and 
months, as well as spill-over support from the aggressive gains in beef values, 
is helping to stimulate buyer activity in most nearby lean hog trade as traders 
return from the holiday break and focus on the rest of the spring and summer 
markets. With holiday packer scheduled subdued surrounding the weekend breaks, 
packer runs are expected to still remain significantly lighter Monday than a 
normal weekday run, but schedules should get back to normal pace Tuesday and 
focus on regular pork movement over the upcoming weeks. April lean hogs are 
$0.20 higher at $90.55, May lean hogs are $1.53 higher at $97.525 and June lean 
hogs are $2.25 higher at $106.725. Hog Prices are lower on the Daily Direct 
Morning Hog report, down $0.75 with a weighted average of $89.44, ranging from 
$89.00 to $91.00 on 755 head with a five-day rolling average of $90.19. Pork 
Cutouts totaled 161.87 loads with 145.59 loads of pork cuts and 16.28 loads of 
trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.36 at $100.33.




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