OMAHA (DTN) -- Agricultural groups and others are testifying about the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in a multiday hearing, while reports out of Washington suggest President Donald Trump could consider withdrawing from the deal that he crafted in his first administration.

U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico are 45% higher since USMCA began, but Canada and Mexico also account for 75% of the country's growing agricultural trade deficit as well.

Politico reported on a podcast with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who suggested it is possible the U.S. would reconsider the trade deal. As Politico noted, "One of Trump's time-honored tactics is to threaten a wrecking ball. He mused about tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement during negotiations that led to USMCA."

Greer suggested the U.S. has different relationships with Canada and Mexico that may require separate deals as a result.

The U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) held a three-day hearing this week to hear from a range of business, farm groups, non-governmental groups, think tanks, academics and others as part of a six-year review of USMCA and whether to extend the agreement.

ONE: COMMODITY GROUPS SAY DO NO HARM

In their testimony this week, the National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association called for a full 16-year extension of USMCA to maintain stable markets. Mexico, for instance, accounts for 40% of corn exports while Canada is the biggest buyer of ethanol. The two countries also combined to buy $4 billion in soybean products last year.

Dairy groups want the administration to use the 2026 review to press for more sales and new rules that would combat "Canada's continued manipulation of dairy tariff-rate quotas that denies U.S. exporters the meaningful market access guaranteed under USMCA."

To be clear, the U.S. does sell some dairy products to Canada. Dairy sales to Canada have gone up 61% since USMCA went into effect and topped $1.1 billion in 2024. U.S. dairy sales to Canada were up 14% through August, according to USDA.

Fruit and vegetable groups in the U.S. are pressing for more controls to reduce the flood of imports from Mexico. California farmers raised concerns about both pest risks and the surge of low-priced imports in products such as avocados. Mexico is the dominant player in avocado sales in the U.S.

"While imports thrive, the trendlines for our industry all point to decline," said Ken Melban, president of the California Avocado Commission.

Justin Tupper, president of the U.S. Cattlemen's Association, called for a return of mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling (COOL). Tupper pointed to survey data and USDA research suggesting U.S. consumers want that kind of transparency and will pay more for U.S. born, raised and slaughtered beef products. "Mandatory COOL is necessary to protect U.S. cattle producers and ensure consumers are informed when they buy beef, especially American beef," Tupper said.

TWO: USMCA GREW LION'S SHARE OF AG TRADE DEFICIT

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins frequently points out the agricultural trade deficit and will often say the Biden administration allowed that deficit to grow.

"Under the last administration, we didn't have one new trade deal. We went from an agriculture trade surplus under Trump to a deficit, $50 billion deficit in just agriculture," Rollins said on CNBC in November.

But USMCA is one of the biggest drivers for increasing the agricultural trade deficit over the past five years. The agricultural trade deficit was $37.6 billion in 2024. Canada and Mexico account for $30.2 billion of that trade deficit, according to USDA trade data.

This year, however, agricultural sales are mostly down slightly between three countries as trade tensions have increased.

The trade deficit could grow in 2025 in part because of billions of dollars in lost soybean sales this fall along with soaring imports of other products such as beef. It was already at $36.8 billion through August, the last month reported by USDA's data.

THREE: USMCA BY THE NUMBERS

USMCA went into effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which had been in effect since 1994.

Before USMCA, Canada had a $2.5 billion agricultural trade surplus with the U.S. in calendar year 2019. That grew to $11.5 billion in 2024. Canadian agricultural and food exports to the U.S. hit a record $40.2 billion in 2024. Through August, Canada's sales to the U.S are down 4%, based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service reports.

Mexico's agricultural trade surplus with the U.S. has gone from $11 billion in 2019 to $18.7 billion last year. Mexican exports to the U.S. topped a record $48.8 billion in 2024. Through August, the U.S. had imported $31.2 billion from Mexico, down 7% from a year earlier, according to USDA's numbers.

FOUR: US SALES TO CANADA, MEXICO HAVE GROWN

Despite deficits, U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico have steadily grown since USMCA took effect.

Combined, U.S. agricultural exports under USMCA were $18.4 billion higher in 2024 than before the deal was inked, or nearly 45% higher than 2019.

Since 2019, U.S. agricultural sales to Canada have increased $7.6 billion to $29.5 billion in 2024. Sales were down 6% through August.

Sales to Mexico have gone up $10.8 billion to reach $30.1 billion in 2024. U.S. sales to Mexico have remained steady through August.

FIVE: US AG EXPORTS GLOBALLY UP 44% SINCE 2019

U.S. agricultural exports globally grew $62.3 billion, or 44%, from 2019-2024 so USMCA doesn't account for the lion's share of the growth.

Agricultural exports peaked in 2022 -- a year of high inflation globally -- when the U.S. sold a record $195.6 billion in farm products. That value fell to $176.4 billion in 2024. Sales through August are down 1%, according to USDA.

USDA on Tuesday posted that the Economic Research Service's Outlook for U.S. Trade, which was set for a Nov. 25 release, "will be rescheduled as soon as possible."

Keep in mind, the U.S. is taking in a lot more goods from Mexico and Canada, but the states have nearly triple the population of Mexico and more than eight times Canada's population. The U.S. not only has a lot more people to feed, but U.S. consumers expect full shelves year-round as well.

SIX: AG IS JUST A SLICE OF USMCA PIE

Total trilateral trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico topped $1.9 trillion in 2024. U.S. trade with Canada was $917 billion. U.S. trade with Mexico was nearly $946 billion.

Canada and Mexico have two-way trade worth about $56 billion.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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